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Bowen: US-Iran deal raises inescapable question of what the war was for

June 18, 2026

Following a February 28th attack on Iran, Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian have signed a memorandum of understanding that effectively represents a strategic setback for the United States and Israel despite their military superiority. Iran successfully leveraged its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, to extract significant concessions including sanctions relief and asset unfreezing worth billions of dollars. The agreement essentially returns both nations to their pre-war status while exposing flawed assumptions by US and Israeli leaders who believed assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader would trigger regime collapse.

Who is affected

  • Thousands of civilians killed in Iran and Lebanon
  • President Donald Trump and his administration
  • President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran and the Iranian regime
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government
  • America's Iran hawks
  • Iranian hardliners opposed to deals with Americans
  • Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (killed in bombing) and his successors
  • Arab oil states
  • Global economy participants dependent on Strait of Hormuz shipping
  • Iranian protesters killed in January (thousands)
  • The Iranian people
  • American and Iranian negotiators
  • Israeli voters (facing elections in October)
  • Former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

What action is being taken

  • The memorandum of understanding calls for an end to the war in Lebanon
  • The US is lifting its counter blockade of Iranian ports
  • The US is waiving sanctions to allow Iran to export oil
  • The US is starting the process of unfreezing Iranian assets held abroad
  • American and Iranian negotiators are going back to work on nuclear deal discussions
  • Ships are being allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz again

Why it matters

  • This represents a fundamental shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics, demonstrating that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global economic chokepoint handling one-fifth of the world's oil and gas—proved more effective than decades of military proxy networks or nuclear development. The outcome exposes serious strategic miscalculations by the US and Israel, who wrongly assumed that decapitating Iranian leadership would collapse the regime, failing to understand the resilience of institutions built over nearly half a century around ideology, religious conviction, and lessons from the Iran-Iraq war. The agreement has potentially catastrophic political consequences for both Trump (described as his worst foreign policy blunder) and Netanyahu (facing October elections and accountability for historic security failures), while potentially transforming the entire Middle East if successful nuclear negotiations follow—though this remains highly uncertain given opposition from hardliners on all sides.

What's next

  • 60 days of talks on a nuclear deal between the US and Iran (with probable extensions due to complexity)
  • If talks progress, the US will lift additional sanctions
  • Israeli elections in October where Netanyahu faces voter reckoning
  • Continued negotiations on the Lebanon war issue, which Israel opposes ending

Read full article from source: BBC

Bowen: US-Iran deal raises inescapable question of what the war was for